Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 242153
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
353 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WHICH WILL
HELP TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO BE MORE UNSTABLE
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BIG
HORN AND PRYOR MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEHAVING ACCORDINGLY AS SLOW
MOVERS AND PULSER TYPE STORMS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS
THIS EVENING SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS MOVING
WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. THE 700MB LOW ALSO
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. AS A
RESULT...MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS
WYOMING AND COLORADO. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION...DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH WITH SNOW LEVELS FOR OUR
MOUNTAINS ABOUT 7000FT AND ABOVE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE RED LODGE AND SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
TOMORROW AND SUNDAY WITH READINGS SATURDAY A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH 50S ON SUNDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD
CLEAR BY MID DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...AS WELL AS ITS PERSISTENCE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
60S MONDAY...70S TUESDAY...AND CLIMB TO AROUND 80 FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT READS ON WHAT FORM THAT WAVE WILL TAKE AS
WELL AS SPEED AND TRACK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED SLIGHT POPS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL NEED
SOME ATTENTION AS GETS CLOSER IN TIME. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
KBIL WEST AND NORTH. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY PRECIP
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS
WELL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/059 039/056 038/067 042/074 046/080 048/080 049/078
    73/W    46/W    31/B    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
LVM 037/055 034/052 031/068 037/075 041/079 046/076 047/072
    74/T    66/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    22/W
HDN 042/062 039/056 038/067 036/075 040/080 044/080 045/080
    64/W    36/W    41/B    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 044/057 038/059 039/066 037/072 041/079 044/078 047/076
    47/W    24/W    41/B    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
4BQ 041/056 039/056 039/063 036/070 040/076 044/077 045/074
    37/W    47/W    72/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 040/056 039/056 037/061 035/067 037/075 042/076 044/074
    27/W    66/W    73/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B
SHR 043/057 037/053 035/064 035/071 038/076 044/076 045/075
    43/W    47/W    61/B    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.