Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 070129
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
929 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DIFFUSE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL
DRIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY STALL
JUST NORTH OF OR OVER LAKE ERIE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

ADJUSTED THE SKY COVERAGE OVERNIGHT FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS. LOW STRATUS THAT HAD BEEN LINGERING OVER NORTHERN
CUYOHOGA COUNTY APPEARS TO HAVE RETREATED BACK OVER THE LAKE BASED
ON IMPROVED VISIBILITIES REPORTED AT KBKL AND NEARBY WEB CAMS.
HOWEVER...IT IS DIFFICULT TO VERIFY IN EIR IMAGERY THE EXACT
LOCATION AND EXTENT OF THE STRATUS. THERE STILL STANDS A
REASONABLE CHANCE THIS FOG BANK COULD COME ASHORE TOMORROW MORNING
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKESHORE TOWARDS THE TOLEDO END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS VEER EAST. ELSEWHERE...HAZY CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY THU
MORNING AS DEWPOINTS HANG ON IN THE MID AND UPPER 50/S OVERNIGHT.
OTHER THAN THAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH 6 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A RATHER WARM PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY INTO FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ALOFT OVER THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS RATHER
LOW WITH STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTH OF ANY
WEAK AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM DURING PEAK HEATING AGAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE US 30.

HAVE USED ECMWF FOR ALLOCATION OF POPS. THIS MODEL APPEARS TO
PRODUCE LESS SPURIOUS LIGHT PCPN COMPARED TO THE GFS. MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL INCLUDE HIGHER
POPS THERE.

EXCEPT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE TEMPERATURE WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 80S. HAVE USED THE MAV/MEX GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ROUND OF INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE PRESENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...WE SHOULD STAY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DECIDED THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT THEN SETTLE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS BY TUESDAY IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT LIVED AND RIDGING WILL RETURN BY WEEKS END AND ADDITIONAL WARM
UP IS ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FOG BANK OUT OVER THE LAKE STILL AFFECTING KBKL WITH 1/4SM VSBY.
FOG RE-DEVELOPMENT STILL A LIKELIHOOD TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS THE
WORST OF IT ALONG THE LAKESHORE. FURTHER SOUTH ANY DIPS TO IFR
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DELAY
THE START OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS. UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN WE HAD
RAIN MOVE THROUGH AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...TODAYS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS MUCH LARGER. ANY FOG WILL IMPROVE NICELY THURSDAY
MORNING AND IS THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
PRECIP CHANCES JUST ABOUT NIL. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTH LATE THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING BR POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NON
VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NON VFR AS WELL ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER TRANQUIL OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WINDS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT
EXPECTING ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS TO CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS
IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY






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