Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 031122 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE STRATO-CU WILL BE IN THE MID
LEVELS...ACCORDING TO THE FOG CHANNEL AND OBSERVATIONS GOING ON.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE WANING.
STILL WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS (TEMPO) AT KVCT BEFORE NOON AS MID LEVEL
DECK HAS NOT MOVED UP THAT FAR YET SO DAYTIME HEATING COULD BRING
THE LOWER CIGS FOR A SHORT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOME CIGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AND WINDS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND GUSTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LESS
WINDS AND GUSTS AFTER SUNSET. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOES
NEAR THE COAST SO DID KEEP THE VCSH (ANY RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AND SHORT- LIVED). NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TIMING OF VCSH FOR
TODAY...WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED FOR TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AT KVCT WELL BEFORE 04/06Z...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
AT KALI AND KLRD AFTER 04/06Z. WILL HOLD OFF ON MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KCRP (COULD BE MORE TEMPO BUT WILL NOT PUT A TEMPO IN AT THIS
TIME).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER
INLAND AREAS TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (10 POPS) TODAY. INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY CURTAIL
DEEPER CONVECTION...THUS ONLY SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION
WHICH WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF CWFA HAS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
GETTING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO DID INCLUDE 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA (DOES NOT INCLUDE
CITY OF LAREDO AT THIS TIME BUT JUST TO THE NORTH). FOR
MONDAY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS OVER INLAND AREAS (THE MORE WEST
THE BETTER MOISTURE)...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS NEAR AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 BUT EVEN INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THE NORTHERN
WEBB/WESTERN LA SALLE REGION. SOME UPPER SUPPORT WITH DIFFLUENT
REGION...BUT BEST SUB TROPICAL JET DYNAMICS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CWFA. MORE CLOUDS AND WIND TODAY...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SO WE MAY SEE A JUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO AM EXPECTING UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR
MONDAY MORNING. EVEN MORE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS COASTAL REGIONS. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
HIGHS OBSERVED ON SATURDAY THAN ON SUNDAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO
THESE NUMBERS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA
TODAY...BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO SCEC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE.
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...COULD GET TO SCEC. CLOSER
AGAIN TO SCEC MORE AREAS ON MONDAY. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AT BEST
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTED TOO MUCH AS
MOISTURE AXIS IS WEST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEASONABLY STRONG LLJ
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. DURING THE DAY TUES A NEGATIVELY
TILTED H5 TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO SWING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...THOUGH
THE CWA WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUATION OF LLVL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND A SUBTROPICAL JET OVERHEAD /ALBEIT
WEAKENING/...SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS /AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF/ KEEPS
THE CWA ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS GREATER
INSTABILITY AND THUS...FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
PRIMARILY INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL JET
WEAKENS FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH ONLY MINOR VORT MAXES IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW...ONLY LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD AND IS PROG TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY ALSO PROG TO EXIST ACROSS THE CWA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL H5 VORT MAX...AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING...SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH CONVECTION THEN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL JET IS PROG TO REMAIN OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILE MAY NEGATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE CHANCES...MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED MOST MORNINGS WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX/MIN TEMPS ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  69  83  70  85  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          82  67  83  67  83  /  10  10  10  10  40
LAREDO            89  72  86  71  87  /  10  10  20  10  30
ALICE             88  67  86  70  86  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          81  71  81  73  83  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           88  68  85  69  84  /  10  20  20  10  40
KINGSVILLE        86  67  84  69  85  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  71  80  73  83  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION


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