Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 272007
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL HELP BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING FRONT. LEANED ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS...BUT THE
LATEST BLEND DID DELAY THE TIMING BY ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S OVER NW WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD
TO THE LOW 40S OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEMREG/WRF MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING THE
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SO PCPN CHANCES ARE
LOW FOR ALL BUT THE NW FORECAST AREA. THE ONE MODEL THAT STANDS
OUT IS THE SREF WHICH INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING SKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. MILD
AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

WED/THURS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING WARM AIR TO ADVECT IN AND
TEMPS TO WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SFC A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A FEW AFTERNOON
CLOUDS POSSIBLE...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY AND MILD. LAKE BREEZE WILL
BE POSSIBLE WED AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY TEMPS WILL NOT DROP
VERY MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION IN
PLACE. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY...ON FRIDAY MORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORE OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE EACH DAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
ON SUNDAY DUE TO BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE ALOFT...A SFC HIGH WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SAT/SUN ALLOWING MOIST GULF AIR TO MOVE UP
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...THERE
STILL REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TIMING OF
THE MOISTURE AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING FEATURES. OVERALL
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION ANY DAY DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. TEMPS WARM...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. APPROACHING 70
INLAND...BUT AS COOL AS THE MID 50S BY LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MOST SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MVFR AT INL AND POSSIBLY HIB/DLH LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND NEAR-MVFR CEILINGS REACHING INL AROUND 08-09Z AND HIB BY
10-11Z. MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE LESS LIKELY AT BRD/DLH
SO ONLY DEPICTED LOWERED VFR CEILINGS AT THESE SITES...WITH HYR
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...USUALLY LESS THAN 6KTS. LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN EASTERLY
WIND AT DLH. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TOWARDS MORNING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...BUT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  63  38  60 /   0  20   0   0
INL  42  62  33  67 /  60  60   0   0
BRD  42  66  37  69 /   0  20   0   0
HYR  33  66  35  63 /   0  20   0   0
ASX  33  63  36  56 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





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