Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 051052
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MARINE STRATUS IS INFILTRATING THE COAST AND NEAR
COAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
THE NORTH COAST. THUS A SOMEWHAT CLOUDY MORNING IS EXPECTED COAST
SIDE HOWEVER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ERODE THE CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A SUNNY BUT BREEZY
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE INTERIOR EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...AND
DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHEAST...MAY
BECOME THICK ALOFT. THUS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS CURRENTLY DO NOT LOOK AMAZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL AREAS BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE
OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE REGION BUT AT DIFFERING
TIMES AND STRENGTHS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. RPA/JT


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KUKI THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE AND GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KCEC AND KUKI WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC AND KUKI
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KACV THROUGH
THIS MORNING DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
KACV THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION.
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE WINDS AND/OR
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEAR
SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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