Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 062326
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

A FEW STORMS OVER NRN MEXICO COULD PROVIDE SOME TURBULENCE ON
APPROACHES TO DRT...BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION INTO THE TAF PERIODS.
CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL TX IS FORECAST BY THE MOST RECENT OF
HRRR RUNS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL TX...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
HI-RES MODEL TRENDS AGAIN TONIGHT. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
CONVECTION...HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD DROP LOW CLOUDS INTO IFR
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG OR HAZE TO MIX WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES BY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS SKIES FOR DAYTIME THURSDAY LOOK
PRETTY PESSEMISTIC...SO WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSEMISTIC
VERSION OF PERSISTENCE INSTEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 70S BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS TREND
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CAPE VALUES
IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING FEW STRONG CELLS ON-GOING AHEAD OF
A DRY-LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM LAKEVIEW SOUTHWESTWARD TO FORT
STOCKTON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SENDING SHORT-WAVE
PULSES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND OVER PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON...MORE STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO FIRE UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY-LINE AND
OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AFFECT PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY STORM THAT
FORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHES LATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULE OUT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE HILL COUNTRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE...AGAIN...MAIN
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  83  72  83  71 /  20  30  30  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  83  72  83  71 /  20  30  30  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  83  72  83  71 /  20  30  20  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  80  70  81  69 /  30  30  30  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  88  72  88  71 /  40  20  20  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  81  71  82  70 /  20  30  30  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  84  72  85  71 /  30  30  20  40  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  83  72  83  71 /  20  30  20  40  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  84  74  84  73 /  20  20  20  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  83  72  84  71 /  30  30  20  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  84  73  84  72 /  30  30  20  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



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