Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 070903
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
403 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/CANADIAN WEST COAST WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE GULF OF AK/CANADIAN ROCKIES BY 84 HOURS WITH SOME MODERATE
AMPLIFICATION.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE ND/SD BORDER AND
WAS MOVING NORTH ABOUT 15 KNOTS. OTHER SHORT WAVES WERE OVER NE AND
THE FOUR CORNER AREA. NOT MUCH OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER KS IA AND SOUTHERN MN
WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN MN THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY WITH SHORT WAVE.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MAN TO KS AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH AS TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MOSTLY EXIT THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ADIABATIC LAYER TO AROUND 850 HPA POST FRONTAL
TODAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR MIX DOWN OF WINDS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CA WILL ROLL OUT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MAY SPREAD POPS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE
SHORT TERM.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LOW OUT INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEY CONTINUE TO BE A BIT STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM IN COMPARISON TO THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE...KEEPING THE LOW
MORE CLOSED OFF. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND
HAVE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE DEFORMATION PRECIP...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND INTO MONDAY. MODELS START TO DIVERGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE LESS
PHASED AND WEAKER. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN SOME PRETTY COLD AIR FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND SOME SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THIS
VERIFIES. KEPT THE BLENDED SOLUTION OF TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE
THRESHOLD FOR SNOW AND WENT ALL LIQUID FOR OUR LINGERING POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE RUNS. MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY SO WILL STICK WITH THE BLENDED
SOLUTION WITH MODERATING TEMPS AND A FEW MINOR CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

ANTICIPATE TAF SITES WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR BY SUNRISE...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THUR LATE MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...TG



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