Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 060959
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDER AREAS AS WELL. ON FRIDAY...STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BLOW AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS IS PRESENT ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH MID MORNING. PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW INSTABILITY
ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS / TSTORMS THERE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STRENGHTEN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA STARTING
TODAY. THIS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
NOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW TO BE CENTERED
OVER SRN CALIFORNIA AND SPREADING MOISTURE INTO WESTERN AZ. PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY TO BE CONFINED TO NW COCONINO COUNTY.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ON SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WERE RAISED A
FEW POINTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FORECAST SNOW LEVELS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PAGE TO PAYSON. MODEL AND FORECAST QPFS ARE FROM 0.10 -
0.25 INCH LIQUID AND AREA ABOVE 7000 FEET IN WESTERN AZ MAY SEE AN
INCH OF TWO OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING.  CLEARING MOVES IN FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN UNTIL 15Z. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS SW 10-20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AFTER 17Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE UTAH
AND NEW MEXICO BORDER AREA WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND A BIT WARMER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ASSURED ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THIS
PERIOD. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
EASTWARD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION....MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM



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