Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 180932
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
332 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA...REACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER IS A
DISTINCT POTENTIAL NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE THE FRONT
WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH AND WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY WARM FURTHER
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY. GIVEN LOW THREAT DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION
OUT FOR NOW BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOR THE NEXT SHIFT.
MORE CONFIDENCE SURROUNDS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERSISTING THANKS TO ON GOING
CAA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE LOOKS LIKE IT IS IN FINE SHAPE.

FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WINDS MAY RELAX SOME...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE AS THIS INITIAL LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRES...A NEW ONE
MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ANOTHER OPTION MAY BE TO JUST EXTEND THE
EXISTING HEADLINES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL LET
EXISTING LAKE WIND ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE EXISTS
SURROUNDING DURATION OF LIGHTER WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS MAKING A
GRADUAL EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT AS A TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OF THE CWA WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. ANY
SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL
COME TO AN END. THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT THE ADVANCING RIDGE WILL
MEAN RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO AND AS UPPER RIDGE OVER ALBERTA AND WESTERN
MONTANA. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SEE MILD AND DRY WEATHER AS THE
SHORTWAVES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT STAY WELL TO THE EAST.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE BLOCKING PATTERN SHOW UP ON
THURSDAY AS THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS A BLOCKING
FEATURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST THAT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH THE HELP OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS COLD FRONT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
SCHEDULED...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS WILL BE DROPPING TO THE 25
PERCENT RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING IN A FEW AREAS. FUELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY AND WHILE GREEN UP HAS BEGUN THERE IS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO.
ONE LAST CONSIDERATION WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL NEAR
THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE THE LAST TO
EXPERIENCE THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH AND WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE SITUATION THEREFORE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR
HEADLINES AS WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE CRITERIA BEING MET. FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE THE FORECAST
SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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