Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 242235
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN`T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THROUGH 01Z OR 02Z WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BUT WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 02Z-14Z WINDS
FROM THE WEST NEAR 10KTS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. 14Z-18Z
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WITH SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTH (18Z) THEN NORTHEAST (22Z) AT 11KTS OR LESS. MAY
SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP AROUND 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 05Z WINDS
VARIABLE WINDS 6KTS OR LESS. 06Z-15Z MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK. FOR NOW HAVE A SCATTERED DECK. WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10KTS. 16Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AM EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST-
NORTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. SHOULD SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
4K FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99



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