Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 271047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO TODAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA...PROVIDING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WITH EAST-WEST ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROF
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A PAIR OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
TO PIVOT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROF DROPPING SOUTH
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

INITIAL S/W DROPPING SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

SECOND S/W OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO DROP SOUTH THRU EASTERN OHIO
THIS AFTN. AIRMASS IS DRY BUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FAR EAST THIS AFTN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND SPRAWLING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS AFTN/S S/W EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS MAINLY THIS
EVENING  WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACRS THE FAR EAST IN PROTECTED AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S NE TO THE UPPER 30S SW.

IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME...NRN RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER TUESDAY AS SRN SYSTEM MOVES
INTO LOWER MS VLY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY BUT
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

SRN SYSTEM TO SLIDE EAST THRU THE TN VLY WITH SFC LOW ALONG THE GULF
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY MENTION OF PCPN TO SLIGHT CHC POPS
IN FAR SE WED AFTN. CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL MILDER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 40 NE TO THE MID 40S SW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL OPEN UP AND SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT TO BECOME A LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. OVERALL THERE IS WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. BUT AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
NORMAL. CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR CMH AND LCK BUT KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE ANY PRECIP.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. CVG WILL SEE
VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





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