Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 210828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TOMORROW AS CENTRAL
INDIANA IS IMPACTED BY A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK UPPER WAVE
WILL PROVIDE DYNAMICS FOR LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BLOCK ANY
MOISTURE FROM ENTERING CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL COME OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS THE STRONG WEST WINDS. A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LOWER MIDWEST AS BROAD UPPER LOW
ROTATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. WEST WINDS WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. BEST DYNAMICS WILL COME FROM A STRONG 300 MB JET OF 100
KTS...AND FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE PROVIDED BY AN 850 MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS.

IN REGARD TO POPS...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY
OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH COULD RECEIVE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL WARRANT
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

AS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...INHIBITING MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION.

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
FALL BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

FRIDAY STARTS OFF DRY THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY AND PUSHING EAST
THROUGH IT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE
IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEN WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AND CONDITIONS LOOK DRY. MONDAY AN UPPER LOW
WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A FEW SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING ON/OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

0825Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
WEDNESDAY PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH TIME SECTIONS. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AFTERNOON MID DECK
BEFORE CU ROLLS IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT IN BETWEEN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH.

WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BUT INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 14Z WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON
AT LAF AND IND. HUF AND BMG SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY BUT SHOULD
STILL SEE GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
ONCE AGAIN DROP OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/KOCH

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