Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271720
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
120 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EAST FROM TEXAS TO GEORGIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...
CAUSING MORE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP SHOULD RESUME OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ALLOWING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH AND HAS JUST CLEARED
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES HAD TEMPORARILY CLEARED
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM. THIS SECOND
DISTURBANCE WAS STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORED THE 12KM NAM THAT DID AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH
THE INITIALIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERNS THAT THE
NAM DRYS OUT THE LOWER AND MID LAYERS TOO FAST. THE RAIN CHANCE
DIFFERENCE IS NOTICEABLE AT HILLSDALE MICHIGAN WITH A MET RAIN
CHANCE OF 4 PERCENT VS A GFS RAIN CHANCE OF 31 PERCENT. FOR NOW...
HAVE KEPT AN OPTIMISTIC AND DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES LATER TODAY OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH WITH ONE LAST NIGHT OF PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
AS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 30S. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF WITH ANY FROST ADVISORY GIVEN A MORE MARGINAL EVENT EXPECTED AND
GIVEN RECENT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS JUST A
FEW NIGHTS AGO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

UPR RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUE
PROVIDING FAIR WX AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
L-M60S. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
MID-WEEK UPR LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS... THOUGH
SOME SGFNT DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHAT DOES SEEM LIKELY IS THAT THE LOW
OVER TX TODAY WILL MOVE TO TN/KY WED AND BE ABSORBED BY A DEEPENING
SHRTWV DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GRTLKS. 00Z GFS IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SUGGESTING SOME SHOWERS
COULD REACH THE NE PORTION OF OUR CWA WED... BUT WAS DISREGARDED AS
AN OUTLIER WITH OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. DID
FCST A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WED NGT AND THU WITH COOLER TEMPS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH... THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS SUGGESTED BY DEEPER
GFS. THE OH VALLEY LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRI WITH ROCKIES RIDGE MOVG TO THE GRTLKS AS ZONAL FLOW DVLPS OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX WITH
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WARMING
TREND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING TO
ABOVE NORMAL AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. WK SHRTWV`S MOVG EAST THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS/GRTLKS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING ALBEIT WK
INSTABILITY ALSO SUGGEST A LOW BUT SLOWLY INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS
GENERATING A BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND
NORTHEAST INDIANA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA BUT LATEST OBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE 3 KFT. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OVERNIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES AND DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TOMORROW BUT CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...AGD


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