Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 062348
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
448 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING TO MOST OF NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO REDUCE OR
ELIMINATE SHOWERS WEST OF THE RUBY MTNS. DRIER AIR HAS TEMPORARILY
FILTERED INTO AT LEAST THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA, WITH MOST ZONES
STAYING DRY THROUGH 10-11 PM. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
QUICKLY AFTER 11 PM AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. RADAR
USERS...MOST OF THE RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN ELKO COUNTY AND EUREKA
COUNTY IS CHAFF...NOT RAIN.  TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 201 PM /

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING TO MOST OF NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTERNOON IS SET TO
SPREAD BENEFICIAL VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS NEVADA
THROUGH FRIDAY. 12Z GFS SUGGESTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH WILL BE COMMON EAST OF A MOUNTAIN CITY-BATTLE MOUNTAIN-AUSTIN
LINE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH,
PARTICULARLY FROM STRONGER CONVECTION.

TONIGHT...INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, AS
LIFT FROM CALIFORNIA LOW INCREASES.

THURSDAY...STRONG 548 DM UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. FORCING AND DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE STRONG ACROSS NEVADA,
SO INCREASED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE MORE (12Z MRA POP GUIDANCE OF
84% FOR ELKO). WITH THICK CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, LOWERED
THURSDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY, CLOSER TO COOLEST MAV
GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH HEATING WILL OBVIOUSLY BE LIMITED, DYNAMICS AND
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STRONG AMID NE QUADRANT OF UPPER LOW.
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE NEVADA THURSDAY, PER
5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEMPORARILY WANE, BUT
SHOWERS WILL NOT STOP COMPLETELY, AS INTENSE 547 DM UPPER LOW
MOVES TO NEAR DEATH VALLEY BY 5 AM FRIDAY. CLOSEST TO THE LOW`S
TRACK, SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT ACROSS NYE COUNTY, INCLUDING ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW.
INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SEVERAL DEGREES IN
RESPONSE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND MIXING.

FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE OUT, SLOWLY
MEANDERING TO NEAR LAS VEGAS BY 5 PM. ALL MODELS DEPICT WELL-
DEVELOPED WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION BANDING ACROSS NE NEVADA,
MAINLY ELKO COUNTY, SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MORE LIMITED FRIDAY, BUT KEPT AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION FOR CONTINUITY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL QPF OF 0.25
INCH OR HIGHER EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. 12Z ECMWF DROPS
THICKNESS TO NEAR 554 DM AT ELKO FRIDAY, WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW
OUT OF THE VALLEYS, BUT NOT BY MUCH. SNOW WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000
FT. AGAIN, LOWERED FRIDAY`S MAX TEMPS, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
DROPPED LOWER.  TURNER

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER THE CWA FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. STORMS
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW EJECTS EAST. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY ACROSS THE CWA. DRY NEAR ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT BACKS SLIGHTLY
TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS
IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ENERGY FROM THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO MAINLY JUST THE
MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. EC EJECTS UPPER LOW FASTER
THAN THE GFS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NV. AT THIS TIME...WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER.  JH

AVIATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 06Z THIS EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE MORE WIDESPREAD.  JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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