Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 191456
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1056 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...


SUBTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...BUT THE
OVERALL POP FORECAST AND SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAIN THE SAME FROM
THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. AFTER ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT MESO SCALE
MODELS AND THE 12Z SOUNDING...THE FAVORED AREAS OF CONVECTION
SHOULD BE IN THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...A WEAK RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
AND INSUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORT WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE
SOUNDING ANALYSIS REVEALING THAT THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE WINDS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING WITH NOT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR HAIL.


60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN
AIRPORTS. PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM. VCSH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRPORTS. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF VCSH IS LOW
FOR THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AT THE MOMENT. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS
CLOSER THIS EVENING, AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE IN
THE DAY...FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING WHAT
LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS TIMING
MAY ALSO SLIGHTLY INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A 100 KT UPPER JET
STREAK JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
REDUCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AREA WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH 90+ READINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MARINE... WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE
2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  70 /  20  30  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  74  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
MIAMI            90  75  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
NAPLES           88  74  87  71 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.