Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 031637 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1137 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MON. A
MODERATE RISK IS NOW IN EFFECT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LATER TODAY OR OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
03.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 04.06Z...FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 04.13Z...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 04.18Z. EXPECT SCT TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCT TO BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KMOB AND KBFM LATE
MON MORNING THRU MON AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12
KNOTS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING EAST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON...THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 13
TO 15 KNOTS LATE MON MORNING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. 32/EM

&&

.MARINE...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT WIND/SEA FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT
AND ON MON IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN MOST OTHER OPEN AREAS
INCLUDING SOME INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED MOSTLY FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS LATE
MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY UNDER
PREDOMINANTLY BLUE SKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
MID 80S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR MORE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN MS...AL & FL TOMORROW MORNING UNDER FAIR SKIES AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT...EFFICIENT RADIATIVE
COOLING...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLUXES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN
THEY`VE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. 08/JW

(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...STILL LITTLE TO NO REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOLVL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CLOUDS
AND ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN...ALTHOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA (AS
MENTIONED ABOVE IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION). HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S
INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 60S COASTAL. 12/DS

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS STILL CONSISTENTLY
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION...BUT BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES AS
WELL...AND EVEN THOUGH A BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SLOW AND GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION...
THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY ANY
CHANCES FOR PCPN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S (EXCEPT UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES). OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CREATE A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN
STRENGTHENING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CREATE SMALL CRAFT CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
08/JW

AVIATION...03.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OCNLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. 08/JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  60  82  61  83 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   77  65  82  65  80 /  05  00  10  05  05
DESTIN      76  67  78  66  78 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   82  55  83  58  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  83  55  84  57  83 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      83  55  83  58  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   85  54  85  58  85 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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