Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 251449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
949 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE NEED HAS ARISED TO TAMPER THINGS...A LITTLE. THE BIGGEST THING
THAT HAS CHANGED...WE DIDN`T SEE ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT TO OUR
SOUTH HAMPERING ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MIDDLE TN.
BECAUSE OF THIS...WE CURRENTLY DON`T HAVE ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
SITTING AROUND AND WAITING FOR DIURNAL HEATING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. DON`T GET ME WRONG...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT AND WARM US INTO THE LOW 80S. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT AT THE SAME TIME...BUT THE CHANCE OF MIDDLE TN
SEEING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LACK OF SOME FORCING
MECHANISM SUCH AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS GREATLY DIMINISH. IT IS
NOT ZERO THOUGH. LET ME SAY THAT AGAIN. THE CHANCE IS NOT ZERO FOR
ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS
DIMINISHED. AGAIN...IF THEY DO DEVELOP... LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE FOCUS WILL BE THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DRAPED OVER THE
REGION...FROM THE BOOTHILL OF MO EWD THROUGH KY...JUST NORTH OF
MIDDLE TN. THIS COULD BE THE FOUCS FOR DEVELOPMENT NOT ONLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN THIS EVENING AS SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE THIS EVENING AND PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-STATE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THAT LINE.

OUR MAIN THREAT TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE A 3 PM TO 9 PM WINDOW SO IF
YOU`RE GOING TO BE OUT AND ABOUT ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY PLEASE
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WARM FRONT SET TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT PASSING LATE TONIGHT. ISO-SCT STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS WARM FRONT PASSES. ONCE BEHIND BOUNDARY IN WARM
SECTOR...ISO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE 20-03Z TIMEFRAME.
LOWER CIGS WILL GO UP IN WARM SECTOR BUT THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES. SHWRS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP WITH COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AS WELL.
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY DROP CIGS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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