Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 192116
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
216 PM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, dry weather is expected through Tuesday. Temperatures are
expected to be more than ten degrees above average. The arrival
of a cold front Wednesday will bring the first threat for showers
and cooler temperatures. After this, a number of potential waves
track across the Inland Northwest. The heaviest amounts of rain
will fall across North Idaho, with snow levels high enough to not
pose a threat to any regional passes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...Satellite indicates dry northwest flow
aloft under the east flank of an approaching upper level ridge.
This will be the main driver of sensible weather for the next two
days...featuring mainly clear skies...light winds and increasingly
warm temperatures with widespread low to mid 70s by Tuesday
afternoon. There is not much else to elaborate on for this period.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...This period will bring a
change to the dry and warm weather stretch. Models are in
agreement in dragging a moderate strength upper level trough
through the region beginning with a chance of showers or a stray
thunderstorms Tuesday evening/night over the high Cascades with a
general spreading out of this precipitation risk through the
basin on Wednesday and into the Idaho Panhandle Wednesday night.
This does not look like a significant precipitation maker with
fairly weak dynamic support and marginal deep moisture
availability and instability. The ECMWF model is the most
aggressive and fastest model which implies a better chance of
showers and isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms...while
the GFS is slower and weaker. While confidence is growing that
Wednesday will feature at least more clouds and slightly cooler
temperatures with a few showers...confidence is low regarding
which model is more plausible at this time. /Fugazzi

Thursday through Sunday: A weak front will move through the area
early Thursday. By Thur afternoon the GFS is showing some decent
instability along the border btwn ID and MT. Have kept
thunderstorms in through the afternoon hours. But thereafter the
models are not in very good agreement about the rest of the work
week and next weekend. The 12Z ECMWF brings a large trough of low
pressure through the Pacific Northwest late Thur night through
early Sat morning. It then builds a shortwave ridge over the area
for Saturday and Sunday. Whereas the 12Z gfs brings several
fairly weak waves through broad southwest flow through Sunday.
Needless to say there is high uncertainty in the extended period.
Kept chance of precipitation around average for this time of the
year....meaning a slight chance in most valleys and a chance of
precip in the mountains. Thursday daytime highs should be a few
degrees above average. Then through the remainder of the forecast
period temps will be right around average for this time of the
year. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure building into the region will result in
VFR conditions. Winds will remain weak and some passing high
cirrus can be expected to drop south into the region out of BC.
/MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  72  45  75  50  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  37  70  41  75  44  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  30
Pullman        39  69  40  74  46  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       44  76  46  78  49  72 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       40  74  41  77  46  73 /   0   0   0   0  10  30
Sandpoint      35  69  37  73  40  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  30
Kellogg        37  68  39  74  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  40
Moses Lake     42  76  43  78  50  74 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      48  76  50  77  53  72 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Omak           42  76  43  77  47  73 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&



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