Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260115
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH
TONIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT...AND EXIT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF I 70 INTO EASTERN OH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND DIMINISH AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ERODES THE MOISTURE...AND THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT EXITS.
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN WV/MD TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S...AND MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THERE THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. NUDGED TEMPS TO THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY UNDER BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING...WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS REGION INTO MONDAY SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADDED FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS SHOWS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX
IN RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY...BUT COOL TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE FORECAST USING A
BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...SO COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...ALBEIT SMALL...IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY GIVEN
PROJECTIONS OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PHASING INTO THAT TROUGH.
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT HAS SPREAD RAIN INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND SW PA...BUT DRIER AIR ACROSS NW PA HAS LIMITED
THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. EXPECT THE RAIN TO GET NO
FURTHER NORTH THAN BTP...SO STILL EXPECT FKL/DUJ TO REMAIN DRY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
AT LOCATION SUCH AS PIT...AGC...AND LBE. MORE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
LIKE ZZV AND MGW WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIG/VIS OVERNIGHT WITH
MORE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
END BY SUNRISE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK
AND LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
OUT OF THE N/NE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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