Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 020104
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
904 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY,
WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SKY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DUE TO THE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. WE
ARE FORECASTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
POSSIBLE UP NORTH DUE TO THE SNOW COVER.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA
ON THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

A STIFF SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DRAW MILD AIR INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 60S IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP THE
BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO MAKE IT FULLY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MAY STALL
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FINALLY PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ACTUALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FRIDAY MAY BE A GUSTY DAY IN GENERAL DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CHANGE
THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD ACROSS THE POCONOS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED PAST THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A GUSTY DAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRONT THE NORTH, BUT
MAY NOT FULLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG TERM
MODELS. THE GFS ENDS UP LIFTING THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE FACT ITS STILL PRETTY
FAR OUT, WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. THAT BEING SAID, THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY; THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING OVER THE VERY CHILLY
WATER. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 200 PM THURSDAY. ADMITTEDLY,
WE MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR MOST OF OUR MARINE AREA. HOWEVER, NEAR
SHORE GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA AND MOVE THROUGH.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE FORECASTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AT THAT TIME. ALSO, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AROUND 30 PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE.

THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOW COVER. WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...



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