Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KPUB 011012
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
412 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

...HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY...

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
RED FLAG WARNING WAS IN PLACE FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DANGER
WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MIXING CONTRIBUTES TO
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SRN EL PASO
COUNTY...AND LAS ANIMAS AND HUERFANO COUNTIES.

FARTHER EAST...WINDS DO NO LOOK AS STRONG. SUSPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS
MEETING CRITERIA OF 25 KTS OR GREATER MAY BE TOUGH TO MEET.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SE PLAINS. GIVEN
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR BOTH ISOLD
DRY LIGHTING...AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS FROM VIRGA AND CONVECTIVE
DOWNDRAFTS. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE FIRE WX THREAT.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE CONVERTED THE FIRE
WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG FOR THE ERN ZONES. THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN
AFTER SUNSET AS RH VALUES INCREASE.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR US. COULD EVEN SEE
A FEW MID 80S CLOSE TO THE KS BORDER. PRECIP-WISE...WILL SEE ISOLD
CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. IT WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN THE 21-03Z TIME FRAME. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF ISOLD TS WITH THIS CONVECTION. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEST MOISTURE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO SE CO AROUND 03Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND NE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MOISTENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS
UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS INTO THU MORNING.
COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOP EARLY THU MORNING OVER THE
PALMER DVD AND PIKES PEAK REGION. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR THU...

...PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS PIKES PEAK REGION THU NIGHT...

...MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SAT-SUN-MON...

MAIN ISSUES THIS PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER AS DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. SOME PRECIP LIKELY N OF
HIGHWAY 50 THU NIGHT.

THU...

A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM. BY 12Z THU...A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF THE KTAD REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC WESTERLY WINDS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY. WITH LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY ON THU AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS REASON...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
VALLEY.

IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE RATON MESA REGION MAY ALSO SEE STRONG
WESTERLY SFC WINDS THU AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE...SO MY CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A WATCH
WAS TOO LOW ATTM. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO RE-EVALUATE.

NORTH OF THE SFC LOW SE SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS ON THIS DAY WILL VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH N EL PASO COUNTY LIKELY IN THE 40S WHILE TEMPS
NEAR 70 WILL OCCUR DOWN AROUND KTAD. 50S TO AROUND 60S WILL OCCUR IN
THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK LEADING WAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE N TIER OF THE CWA EARLY THU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND PIKES PEAK REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER A 2NDRY
SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS BY LATE IN THE
DAY...AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. BY 6 PM
THU...THE 2NDRY FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST N OF HIGHWAY 50S. MUCH
COOLER AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER N EL
PASO COUNTY BY BY EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS...NOT MUCH
ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT GRASSY AREAS
MAYS SEE A FEW INCHES BY SUNRISE FRI ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY.  OVER
THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE C MTNS AND PIKES PEAK...SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW ARE LIKELY.

SOME THUNDER IS LIKELY THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
N OF HIGHWAY 50. THUNDERSNOW COULD OCCUR ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY
LATE THU AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FRI...

DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL SURGE DOWN
THE PLAINS. MAIN FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CENTRAL CO PLAINS
AND THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY FRI MORNING HOURS. OTHER AREAS OF THE PLAINS AND E SLOPES OF
THE S MTNS WILL LIKELY SEE MAINLY SHOWERS.

BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY...BELIEVE PRECIP WILL CLEAR THE REGION. MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 40S AND L50 ACROSS THE PLAINS AND L/M50S
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY (SLV).

SAT...

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL WARM UP IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE PLAINS...L60S
VALLEYS. FIRE WEATHER COULD BE AN ISSUE OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS AS
STRONG SW SFC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN AND MON...

VERY WARM ONCE AGAIN WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
INCREASE. IT WILL LIKELY BE QUITE WINDY OVER THE MTNS AND SAN LUIS
VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS.

ON MONDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY (VERY WINDY?) EVERYWHERE. I
SHOULD NOTE THAT THE EC GUIDANCE IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SFC SW
FLOW SUN OR MON...BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY SW WINDS.

TUE AND WED...

A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

LATER NEXT WEEK...

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...BOTH GFS AND EC HAVE A RATHER DEEP
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS COULD BRING
SOME MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE REGION. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z THU. A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS IN THE 40-45 KT
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD WINDS FROM
THE W-SW IN THE 20 KT RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AFTER 03Z...LEADING TO A WIND SHIFT TO THE N AND NE TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS THU MORNING...IN
THE 10Z-16Z PERIOD...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD-SCT RA OR
SHSN...WITH FZ LEVELS FROM 1-2000 FT AGL. ROSE

&&

.LONG TERM FIRE WEATHER...THU-TUE
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR THU
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES.

CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE RATON MESA REGION THU
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING IF THIS WILL HAPPEN IS LOW.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE.

CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
ON SATURDAY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. IT COULD BE VERY WINDY MONDAY (G40+
KNTS).

PLEASE READ SHORT AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS ABOVE FOR MORE INFO
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ224-226>237.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
LONG TERM FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.