Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 050900
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY HELPING TO INDUCE A
WAVE/WEAK SURFACE LOW EAST OF FLORIDA THAT ALSO DRIFTS NORTH WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH THE RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSISTING BETWEEN IT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE RATHER
BREEZY FLOW LEADING TO QUICK MOVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EASTERLY SURGE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF DURING THE
EVENING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING WEST INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THE WAVE/WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
EAST OF FLORIDA AND THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. WITH THE FLOW NOT QUITE AS STRONG WILL
SHOULD SEE A NORTH TO NORTHWEST SEA BREEZE DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS THE AREA.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIODS
WILL BE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE OFFSHORE
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME SPREAD IN BOTH INTENSITY AND POSITION BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAM ALL DEPICT SOME
FORM OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WILL BRING WARM BUT RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION
ON NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE NAM SOLUTION WAS THE LARGEST
AND DEEPEST WHILE THE ECMWF WAS THE SMALLEST AND WEAKEST. THE
CANADIAN AND GFS SOLUTIONS PROVIDE A NICE COMPROMISE AND WERE
FOLLOWED CLOSELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GLOBAL MODELS HOLD ON TO THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE GFS TAKING IT BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN LEAVE IT MEANDERING OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. IF THE LOW CENTER DOES ACTUALLY MOVE BACK ACROSS GEORGIA...
IT COULD PULL A BIT MORE MOISTURE WESTWARD OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A LOW POSITION MORE TO THE EAST SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF. WITH THIS IN MIND...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND AND WILL KEEP OUR AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...MOSTLY BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT...HIGHEST
INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK TOWARD THE 90 DEGREE MARK OR
SO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75 AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF COOLING SEA
BREEZES SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES OF PGD...FMY AND RSW TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH
THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL SETUP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NOCTURNAL INCREASES IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND MAY SEE A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND A LIGHTER FLOW WILL SETUP WITH DECENT
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH RATHER HIGH DISPERSION VALUES...
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 35 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  69  86  69 /  20  10  50  40
FMY  85  67  88  68 /  50  30  50  40
GIF  84  66  87  66 /  20  20  50  40
SRQ  86  67  86  68 /  20  20  50  40
BKV  85  63  87  61 /  20  10  50  40
SPG  83  71  85  72 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.