Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 271726
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1226 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TO VFR CATEGORIES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO THE MUCH OF THE AREA BEING
RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST...AND HAS KEPT THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUS RAIN SHIELD FROM MOVING INTO FAR NE OK
AND NW AR. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THOSE AREAS...SO AT MOST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THROUGH 00Z. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FURTHER WEST BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS/LATEST GUIDANCE...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE FAR W-SW ZONES. MOST RAIN WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS FAR NRN TX. RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE TOMORROW FROM NW-SE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. THEREFORE...THIS
UPDATE WILL MOSTLY REFLECT FIRST PERIOD POP...QPF...DEWPOINT AND
SKY ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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