Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 041206
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 May 04 1205 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2335 (S16E30,
Eac/beta-gamma) produced multiple C-class flares during the period
including a C8/1f at 04/0052 UTC. The region continued to exhibit
overall growth in area and spot count and showed signs of mixed magnetic
polarities within its intermediate spots.

Region 2338 (N05E49, Cro/beta) contributed a C3/Sf at 04/0303 UTC.
Region 2338, along with Regions 2336 (N14E06, Dro/beta) and 2337
(S16E49, Bxo/beta), all indicated slight growth during the period. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for an
M-class flare (R1-R2, minor-moderate), over the next three days (04-06
May) due to flare activity from Region 2335 and the return of old Region
2322 (N12, L=119). On its last transit, old Region 2322 produced six
M-class flares and was likely the source of recent back-sided activity
indicated by coronagraph imagery.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
reaching a peak flux value of 194 pfu at 03/1815 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (04-06 May) while the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning influence of a positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds
averaged around 400 km/s, IMF total field values varied from 4-6 nT
while the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle remained
in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at near background levels for
the remainder of day one (04 May) and through the majority of day two
(05 May) under a nominal solar wind regime. A minor solar wind
enhancement is likely late on day two (05 May) through midday on day
three (06 May) due to the onset of a weak negative polarity CH HSS. A
further solar wind enhancement is anticipated midday to late on 06 May
due to the arrival of the 02 May CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels as effects from the positive
polarity CH HSS wane.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for the
remainder of day one (04 May) and through the majority of day two (05
May) under an ambient solar wind environment. Unsettled field conditions
are expected late on day two (05 May) through midday on day three (06
May) due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active
geomagnetic field conditions are likely beginning midday to late on day
three (06 May) due to the anticipated arrival of the 02 May CME.


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