Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 040925
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
525 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SOME SHOWERS THIS MORNING THEN DRYING OUT...

.DISCUSSION...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY...THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN UPPER MICHIGAN. A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OUT WEST
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH RETURNING FOR
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING...WILL VEER NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP SHARPLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
CERTAINLY NOT AS MUCH AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-042100-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
525 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (760).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT...EXCEPT 43-48 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-042100-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
525 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1700. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800
                    UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 17 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.11 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-042100-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
525 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1100.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT...EXCEPT 46-51 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-042100-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
525 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1100.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 14 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT...EXCEPT 42-47 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-042100-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
525 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1700. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800
                    UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ



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