Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FNUS75 KFGZ 041502
FWSFGZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR UPPER BEAVER CREEK...CNF COCONINO NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
802 AM MST MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0750 MST ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BURN SITE DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-56.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-60 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................5.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MAX VENT RATE.......VERY GOOD (79200 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......792.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-42.
MAX HUMIDITY........AROUND 95 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................4.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIN VENT RATE.......MARGINAL (15700 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......157.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO
                    2800 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-56.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-60 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    25 MPH.
LAL.................4.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MAX VENT RATE.......VERY GOOD (99700 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......997.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 4900
                    FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20
                    TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...BOHLIN
REQUESTED BY...MATT MOE
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.UPPER.01/FGZ



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