Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FNUS73 KGRR 171428 AAB
FWSGRR

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR PAKES AND STEVENS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1028 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON APRIL 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...I UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
THAT SUGGESTEED DEEPER MIXING AND HENCE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........70 AT IGNITION...MAX 71.
RH..................28 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6900 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6400-6900 FT AGL...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 3600-4100 FT AGL LATE IN THE DAY.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-400 (POOR TO GOOD) INCREASING TO 600-1000
                    (EXCELLENT)...THEN DECREASING TO 500 (GOOD) IN
                    THE EVENING.

TIME (EDT)      2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........29     25     22
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............70     71     70
RH..............28     31     36
20 FT WIND......W 10   W 12   W 13
20 FT GUST......15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46.
RH..................MAX 77 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 14 TO 17 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MARINO
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150417.PAKES.01/GRR





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