Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
000
FNUS71 KRNK 131446
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR CROOKED CREEK WMA - HARRISON RIDGE FIELDS...VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF GAME & FISH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1046 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON APRIL 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SPECIFIC DISCUSSION FOR THE IGNITION SITE.

OVERCAST SKIES AROUND 500 FEET AGL ARE BEING REPORTED
AT NEARBY HILLSVILLE AIRPORT. LIMITED IF ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THAT
IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WITH LOCATIONS SUCH
AS BOONE...NORTH WILKESBORO...AND HICKORY NORTH CAROLINA REPORTING SUCH IN
THEIR OBSERVATIONS AND NOTED ON RADAR. WHILE SIMILAR TYPE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE BY NOON...THE BETTER CHANCE OF A WETTING
RAIN WILL OCCUR AFTER 500 PM. ONCE A STEADY WETTING RAIN BEGINS...IT
WILL CONTINUE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH TUESDAY AND BECOME A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED ON WEDNESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES.

BROAD DISCUSSION FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...A COOL AND MOIST WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE THE LEAST IN THE NORTH...AND THE GREATEST IN THE SOUTHWEST.

ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 460...AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES.

BETWEEN ROUTE 460 AND THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER...AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES.

ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............83     90     96
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RAIN   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................61     62     63
RH..................74     66     64
20 FT WIND..........S 6    S 6    SE 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........1300   1500   1500
TRANSPORT WIND......S 17   S 15   S 12
CWR.................30     40     50

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......60 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 18
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............92     98     100    100    100    100
WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................62     61     60     59     59     58
RH..................66     71     76     81     84     86
20 FT WIND..........SE 6   SE 6   SE 5   SE 5   SE 4   S 3
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     10     10     10     5
MIX HGT (FT)........1200   600    400    300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......S 12   S 13   SE 8   SE 10  S 18   S 17
CWR.................60     70     70     80     80     90

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......100 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 70 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING EAST
                    2 TO 3 MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............100    100    99     99     99     95
WEATHER COV.........DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                     S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
TEMP................58     57     58     60     62     63
RH..................87     91     88     81     79     72
20 FT WIND..........SW 2   SW 2   W 2    N 2    NE 2   NE 3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      5      5      10
MIX HGT (FT)........300    300    600    700    700    1100
TRANSPORT WIND......S 15   SE 15  S 14   S 9    S 5    E 2
CWR.................100    80     80     70     70     70

$$
FORECASTER...SLEIGHTER
REQUESTED BY...DANIEL HARRINGTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150413.CROOK.01/RNK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.