Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 062036
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
435 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

VALID 00Z THU MAY 07 2015 - 00Z SUN MAY 10 2015


DAYS 1-3...

...WESTERN U.S TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES....

AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH CA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS FCST SCENARIO WITH IDEAL BROAD SWRLY UPPER
DIFLUENT FLOW AND IMPRESSIVE COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TERRAIN. THIS WILL BE THE
CASE ON THURS AND FRI WHERE THE GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNANIMOUS IN
VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF NWRN WY/SWRN MT MTNS. THEN ON SAT... THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COMBINED WITH CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH WILL LOCK IN
COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOR A LARGE SCALE LATE SEASON UPSLOPE SNOW FROM
THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE ABSAROKAS/WIND RIVER/BIG HORN AND CO
ROCKIES TO BEGIN CREEPING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON INTRODUCING 4 TO
12 INCH HEAVY SNOW PROBS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON
SUN.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER

$$




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