Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 260831
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH WEAK
ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALLOWS FOR SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH QPF REMAINS LOW.
FURTHER EAST...A DRIER FLOW ORIGINATING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. IN
FACT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES...BUT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE ISNT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...SO AGAIN LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF QPF.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT THU NIGHT AS A SFC FRONT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
THE FIRST CHANCES OF PRECIP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LOWS...AT LEAST
ON THE ECMWF...MAY BRING SOME FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT
THESE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPTING SOME LATE NIGHT IFR FOG IS
EXPECTED AT KABR/KATY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KPIR/KMBG WILL SEE A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





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