Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 202044
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
344 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE CHIEF CONCERN. AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR
SITS OVER KMBG/KPIR BUT NOT QUITE TO KABR...WITH WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. THE SHORT TERM OFFERS MORE OF THE SAME OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A FETCH THAT ROUNDS THE LOW TO THE EAST.
NOTABLE CHANGES FOR TOMORROW...MIXED DEPTH WILL GENERATE SIMILAR
HIGHS...40S TO MID 50S...HOWEVER MIXED DEWPOINTS YIELD CLOSER TO
TEENS AND 20S COMPARED TO NEAR ZERO TODAY. MIXED DOWN WINDS WILL
ALSO BE LESS INTENSE...CLOSER TO 20G30KTS IN THE EAST WITH LOWER
VALUES WEST RIVER AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO WEAKER WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN...WITH
JUST LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EWD BY FRIDAY. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN THE WEST WILL
LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM
ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE WEST. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST RIVER AS A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION.
AREAS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH...WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY BETTER COMBINATION
OF FORCING AND SATURATION. HOWEVER...EVEN HERE ANY QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AT MOST A QUARTER INCH.

NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. WE ARE STILL A
WEEK OR TWO AWAY FROM MEDIAN LAST 28F READINGS...THUS NO FREEZE
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS POINT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A BROAD AREA OF VFR CIGS /BASES AOA 4K FEET/ WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MUCH OF ERN SD...INCLUDING KATY AND KABR WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO HANG-ON UNTIL SUNSET BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS THROUGH EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003>011-
     015>023-034>037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...FOWLE






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