Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 160213 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
913 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SURGES NORTHWARD. AT THE SFC...RH VALUES HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING
SO HAVE LET RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AT 01Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
SLOWLY DECREASING AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS
IN DECENT SHAPE...BUT DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO SKY COVER BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
THE EAST BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER. WILL LEAVE IN SPRINKLES MENTION
ACROSS THE EAST AS THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES ON RADAR...BUT NOTHING
ORGANIZED OR IMPRESSIVE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS WELL FOR LATER TONIGHT AS
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND NORTHWEST NEB TRIES TO SKIRT THE
FRINGE OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
IS SLOWLY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER NOT
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO DETER FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHERE RH VALUES HAVE AGAIN FALLEN BELOW 20
PERCENT. WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE ADAMANT ABOUT ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...VERY SKEPTICAL ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SATURATION
WILL OCCUR...AND LEFT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAIN
APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HWY 14...BUT QPF APPEARS PRETTY
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY. LUCKILY
WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...SO FIRE DANGER IS NOT AS HUGE OF A
CONCERN. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PLAINS STATES...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY ON
WITH A COOL DOWN THEREAFTER. WITH IT BEING DIFFICULT TO GET
RAINFALL IN OUR CWA LATELY...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE
MODELS AND THEIR RESULTANT QPF FOR OUR CWA FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THE EC...GFS...GEM ALONG WITH THE END OF THE NAM MODEL
RUNS ALL SHOW SOMETHING DIFFERENT WITH THE RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE INTERACTION OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OPENING UP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT RAINFALL
WILL MAKE IT UP INTO OUR CWA BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
KICKS IT OUT OR DRIES IT OUT. AT THIS TIME...EAST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL. IF THE NORTHERN
WAVE IS SLOWER...THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR THE RAINFALL TO LIFT FARTHER
NORTHWEST INTO OUR CWA. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LIKELY POPS EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF OUR
REGION AND PHASE BECOMING A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING UNDER COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. AS A RESULT...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

CIGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO LOW END VFR AND MVFR. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF
MVFR CIGS...BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THEY WILL MOVE IN.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE AFTER DARK.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT






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