Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 161127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD PRECIPITATION
INTO THIS CWA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WILL STILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOST OF THE CWA SEEING LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE
CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WITH
DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL BY SATURDAY WITH
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WILL FORGO THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR NOW AS THIS CWA IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BEST
INSTABILITY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER CANADA AND ONE
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INJECTING THE SOUTHERN
WAVE INTO IT AND BECOMING A STRONG CLOSED OFF LOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE JUST CLIPPING THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING PRECIPITATION...BUT STILL DIFFER SOME ON
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY
POPS DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
STARTING OFF IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TO
SUBFREEZING VALUES MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN






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