Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 200125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
825 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT TONIGHT AS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS WERE STILL CLOUDY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND INTERMITTENTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND START TO DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH A 10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD. FOCUS FOR MONDAY WILL BE ON FIRE
WEATHER DESPITE RECENT RAINS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY DRY AIR WILL
PIVOT IN FROM HUDSON BAY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WHILE 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE A STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S...WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. GIVEN INSTABILITY...WILL
ALSO SEE LOCALLY STRONG/INTERMITTENT WIND GUSTS WITH MIXED DOWN
WINDS POTENTIALLY PEAKING IN THE 30G40KT RANGE. THUS...UNTIL
GREEN UP IS COMPLETE...HAVE SETTLED ON A RED FLAG HEADLINE FOR
MONDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS REDEVELOP
EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.

TUESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE MORE MUNDANE WITH AN INVERTED RIDGE NOSING
OUT OF CANADIAN INTO THE CWA...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
MIXING. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD OPENS WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM CANADA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
ECMWF HAS TRIED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS TO BE QUICKER THAN THE GFS
IN EXITING THE SFC HIGH AND PUSHING IN AN UPPER RIDGE. IT IS
BEGINNING TO SCALE BACK TO MATCH THE GFS...NOW BRINGING THE RIDGE
IN ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT IN THE TIMING
WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING ANY PRECIP CHANCES AND WILL
ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES. AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. PRIOR TO THIS...EVEN WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WOULD LIMIT ANY POPS.

FOR NOW HAVE POPS ENTERING THE FORECAST FRI NIGHT AND REMAINING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SCT-BKN VFR MIXING LAYER CU CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH. EXPECT
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON MONDAY FOR ALL
LOCATIONS WITH VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     MONDAY FOR SDZ267>272.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR






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