Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 170553 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1253 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF RAIN INTO SOUTHERN SD AND
IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CWA UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO DECREASED SKY COVER WHERE IT APPEARS
SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
STILL EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW AND IT LOOKS HIGHLY
LIKELY THAT OUR REGION WILL RECEIVE SOME DECENT RAINFALL STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA. FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS TO MOST OF THE CWA. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT....THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA SPINNING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND KICK OFF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK UP INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
LIFTING UP INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ALL SHOW SOME
DECENT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS...INCREASED POPS FOR MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF INCH ARE EXPECTED...HELPING THE
DROUGHT SITUATION OUT A LITTLE. THE MODELS ALL AGREE A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST SD/WEST CENTRAL MN
AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT LIFTING NORTHEAST. IN BEHIND
THIS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FRIDAYS
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWER
70S. SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL. THEY MAY END UP BEING EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED. UPPER TROF
MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT...HOWEVER COLD/DRY AIR WILL RAPIDLY ADVECT INTO THE CWA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS WELL...WITH A 14MB GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS SLOWLY AND DEEPENS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE FETCH OUT OF CANADA SUPPORTS
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF COOL/DRY AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AND AROUND THE KPIR TERMINAL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...DORN





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