Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 220114 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
814 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE...THEREFORE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE.
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S...WITH THE JAMES VALLEY PERHAPS SNEAKING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS. RECORD LOW FOR ABR WEDNESDAY MORNING IS 20 AND
COULD VERY WELL BREAK THAT RECORD AS CURRENT FORECAST LOW IS 18
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY SO FIRE DANGER NOT QUITE OF A
BIG CONCERN...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ONLY PLACE TO WATCH FOR MARGINAL POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL BE A BIT
BREEZY...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST RIGHT NOW THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN REVISIT TO
SEE IF TRENDS APPEAR TO CHANGE.

DRY AIR IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AS WELL WITH RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS ON
THURSDAY THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT COINCIDE WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE LOWEST RH VALUES.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED REGARDING
PRECIP CHANCES. THIS IS DUE MAINLY TO THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING VERY WET.
SUPERBLEND LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF KEEPING POPS IN FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THERE IS AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE TWO PRIMARY LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING UPPER
TROUGHING AND A CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE
LEFT IN SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
ESPECIALLY IF THE RAIN/CLOUDS DO MATERIALIZE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
PROG A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WHICH
WILL GIVE TEMPS A SMALL BOOST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.