Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 242326
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...A LOW FREEZING
LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 14 WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING PCPN TONIGHT.
A STORM MOTION AROUND 10 KNOTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 6Z...SOME HI-RES
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

BEYOND TONIGHT...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER
MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. RIGHT
NOW...INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS DISAGREE WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH
AND THE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

WARMER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...WITH A STRATUS LAYER BACKING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM CIGS ARE GENERALLY
MVFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...CONNELLY





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