Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 241602 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WITH SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST INTO MINNESOTA ALREADY THIS MORNING...HAVE WENT AHEAD
AND ENDED POPS UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z IN THE EAST. SINCE THE EAST WILL
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...HAVE ALSO INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. HI-RES MODELS STILL SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS THEY TRACK EAST...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION /WHEREAS THE EASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER
ALL DAY/. ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. BY THE TIME A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRAVELS OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...CONDITIONS COULD
BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT FOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...BRIEF HAIL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE
ENERGY ALOFT DROPS SOUTH QUICKLY...AND NO LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...SO EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL END BEFORE...OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION...WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEING FAIRLY WET...LEAVING
THE EAST IN A DRIER REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THIS PERIOD. THE
EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS HOLD BACK ON ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE FEED IS CUT OFF BY AN
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN SD THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BY 21Z
NEAR KATY. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF VCTS BASED ON HI-RES MODELS AT
KATY BUT CHANCES AT OTHER SITES ARE STILL TOO UNCERTAIN. MVFR VSBY
IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. VFR CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR/IFR AT
ALL SITES THIS EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




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