Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280232
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR LATE
EVENING UPDATE HAVE TRIMMED POPS OFF TO THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE AND TIMED OUT ITS EXIT TO THE EAST. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER UP ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR IT OUT LATER TONIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING IN ITS WAKE. FOR
EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT WITH THE CURRENT POSITION
AND MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...TIMING THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE FOG BEHIND THE FRONT LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MEAGER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS EXTEND FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. MESOSCALE MODELS DO
SHOW SHOWERS INCREASING A BIT IN INTENSITY AS THE MOVE INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA. THUS ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE HIGH AS
THE MOVE EAST OF BISMARCK. DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA
AROUND 10-12 UTC TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND A NORTH BREEZE SHOULD KEEP
FOG PROBABILITIES LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. FARTHER WEST AND
NORTH CHANCES FOR FOG SHOULD INCREASE WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE AREAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO RECEIVE A LITTLE RAIN THE PAST DAY OR
TWO. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN JAME RIVER
VALLEY.

SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SUNSHINE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A TRANQUIL AND DRY
WEATHER FORECAST WILL OCCUR AS A 700MB-500MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
REACH INTO THE 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME WITH THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. BASED ON THE LATEST
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY/SOUNDING PARAMETERS AT THIS TIME PER MODEL
AND BUFKIT DATA...NOT SEEING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE
70S AGAIN THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK
SHORTWAVES TO MIGRATE THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CONSEQUENCE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS TIME PERIOD REPRESENTS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME
MONDAY APPEARS MOSTLY DRY...BUT TIMING IN THIS FAST MOVING FLOW
MAKES IT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT TO PREDICT IF ANY SHORTWAVES
EVOLVE AND SLIP THROUGH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

SCT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL BRING LCL MVFR CIGS. LATER THIS EVENING...PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH MAY BRING LCL
IFR VIS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS






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