Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 240855
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
355 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA
PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR/RAP/WRF)
HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEEK ISENTROPIC LIFT.

OTHERWISE TODAY LOOKS RATHER PLEASANT WITH A COOL EAST NORTHEAST
WIND...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY IMPACT WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER WHICH MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD SAT
NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL TRIGGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN ND. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION EXITING
OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH
STALLS FROM SATURDAY WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
WEST AND CENTRAL ND. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL COULD RANGE
BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN THE WEST TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MONDAY NIGHT AND ONWARDS WILL SEE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WAVES AS THEY TRY TO
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE ALOFT. 00Z ECMWF DEPICTS A FLATTER RIDGE AND
DOES INDEED ALLOW THESE WAVES TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MID-WEEK AND TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z
GFS DEPICTS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND MAINLY DEFLECTS ALL ENERGY
TO OUR NORTH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ







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