Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 301142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

CLOUDS INFLUENCED BY A 300MB 100KT JET EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE JET. ALSO AN AREA OF JET
STREAM CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO ADD CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA






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