Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 010008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
708 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 00 UTC. AS
OF 00 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE OAHE...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

AS OF 00 UTC A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED ALONG TO
APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES IN TRAIL OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD


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