Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 201439
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
939 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE PULLED IT TO THE WEST A
BIT IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE A BIT LONGER AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED ENERGY
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.

BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS WE WILL TAP INTO AROUND 40KTS OF WIND TODAY
OVER MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83 TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND ALL POINTS EAST. AS WE MIX OUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON PERCENT RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER MY FAR EAST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THOUGH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS START
TO DIVERGE ON SOME KEY FEATURES TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THOUGH A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AFFECTING THE KMOT AND KJMS TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS WEST AND OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
019>023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS





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