Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 040520
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1220 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST OVER
WYOMING. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED IN NORTHWEST WYOMING WITH THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHEAST. REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATES LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE STRETCHING FROM
BUFFALO TO GILLETTE AND INTO HULETT IN NORTHEAST WYOMING. LATEST
NAM12 AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CAPTURE THIS AREA AND BEGIN TO
NUDGE THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH LATER
MONDAY MORNING AS IT PUSHES INTO A MID LEVEL/700MB RIDGE AXIS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THIS IS COVERED WELL IN THE FROST ADVISORY THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ON THERE WAY
THROUGH THE 40S TOWARDS THE 30S MOST LOCATIONS WEST AND CENTRAL.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 722 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GIVEN DEWPOINT TEMPS
IN THE 20S AND WINDS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OPTED TO
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY WITH FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES 32-35 ACROSS
MUCH OF MY NORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGH SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTH TONIGHT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...BUT SHOULD SEE
LOWS NEARING 32F NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD WESTERLY
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH RIDGING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
COAST WHILE UPPER LOW SITS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF WEAK JET STREAK CONTINUES TO PASS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THOUGH THIS IS ONLY RESULTING IN
A FEW SPRINKLES GIVEN THE DRY LOWER LEVELS.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS REGION REMAINS IN
WESTERLY FLOW.

ON MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW
THAT WILL PUSH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THERE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
NOTED IN THE FLOW WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW SMALL SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE CHANCES FOR RAIN MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LATEST 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A DEEP WEST
COAST TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY NORTH...NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
NORTH DAKOTA QUICKER THAN THE 12 UTC GFS SOLUTION. WHILE TIMING IS
STILL A BIT OFF BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THERE IS CONSENSUS ON MUCH
NEEDED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAKING ITS WAY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MID NEXT WEEK. THE 12 UTC WPC QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS A
RANGE OF A HALF INCH TO ONE AND A QUARTER INCHES OF RAINFALL
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE LONG TERM BOTH THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE THE WEST COAST TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AND PROGRESSING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RECENT
12 UTC RUNS FORECAST THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE 12 UTC ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF DID BACK OFF
A BIT FROM ITS 00 UTC RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-034>036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...KS


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