Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191429
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IS ON TRACK WITH THE
STRATUS FIELD OVERTAKING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SCATTER WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 12-13
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

INITIAL BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SECONDARY ROUND OF SCATTERED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAINLY OVER THE WEST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PROLONGING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...PUSHING OVER
MINNESOTA/EASTERN MANITOBA AND CLOSING OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS COLD AIR
FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. MODELS START TO DISAGREE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER A FEW UPPER WAVES WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
LIFT AND SCATTER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE ALSO
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
30-35 KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD






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