Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181730
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE 12 UTC
DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND 13-16 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS MATCH WELL TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 17 UTC OF RAIN SLOWLY PROPAGATING NORTH
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST BEGINNING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE TRENDS OF THE 10-13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS
WHICH KEEP THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR
THE MOST PART TO THE SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 22-24 UTC THIS
EVENING GIVEN DRY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PRECEDING
THIS SYSTEM. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ARE
ACROSS THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS
MORNING ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DID ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEPICTED ON THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOS ARE TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE...THOUGH THESE APPEAR WEAK AND DOUBTFUL MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES COULD BE HITTING THE GROUND. WITH THAT SAID...LATEST
GUIDANCE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SHOWERS TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAIN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN. SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAIN...CONCLUDED THROUGH GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ON SUNDAY...DEEPENING TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER MANITOBA WHILE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WASHES INTO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL STILL KEEP LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THOUGH THE DAY IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW RAIN/SNOW CHANCES LINGERING OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

UPPER LOW PUSHES ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING PRIMARILY OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...DECREASING TOWARDS THE WEST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS OFF
TO THE EAST KEEPING NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING WAVE
SLIDES THROUGH THE FLOW...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL ENTER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH A LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. EMBEDDED MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER OVER THIS REGION...INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS STILL MAY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AC/JJS






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