Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 230900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THE LATEST 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BROUGHT THE
PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA A BIT QUICKER.
QPF TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH. AT THIS TIME THINKING SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE REGION WILL BE IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...CAN NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FORMING NORTH OF
THE WEAK WARM FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS DID PUT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM HIGHWAY 83 TO POINTS EAST WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH WINDS IN THE AREA
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A QUIETER PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THAT AREA.

FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN MATERIALIZES FROM A
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
WESTERN ND SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...SHIFTING NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THIS TIME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AFTERWARDS...MONDAY NIGHT AND ONWARDS...RIDGING DEVELOPS
PROMOTING DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. RATHER LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z GFS/EC...SO DETAILS ARE LACKING AT THIS
TIME FOR NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF WYOMING MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM HIGHWAY 83 TO POINTS EAST WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH WINDS IN THE AREA
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...MM
FIRE WEATHER...MM







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