Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 040021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
721 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 722 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GIVEN DEWPOINT TEMPS
IN THE 20S AND WINDS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OPTED TO
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY WITH FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES 32-35 ACROSS
MUCH OF MY NORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGH SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTH TONIGHT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...BUT SHOULD SEE
LOWS NEARING 32F NORTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD WESTERLY
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH RIDGING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
COAST WHILE UPPER LOW SITS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF WEAK JET STREAK CONTINUES TO PASS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THOUGH THIS IS ONLY RESULTING IN
A FEW SPRINKLES GIVEN THE DRY LOWER LEVELS.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS REGION REMAINS IN
WESTERLY FLOW.

ON MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW
THAT WILL PUSH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THERE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
NOTED IN THE FLOW WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW SMALL SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE CHANCES FOR RAIN MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LATEST 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A DEEP WEST
COAST TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY NORTH...NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
NORTH DAKOTA QUICKER THAN THE 12 UTC GFS SOLUTION. WHILE TIMING IS
STILL A BIT OFF BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THERE IS CONSENSUS ON MUCH
NEEDED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAKING ITS WAY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MID NEXT WEEK. THE 12 UTC WPC QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS A
RANGE OF A HALF INCH TO ONE AND A QUARTER INCHES OF RAINFALL
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE LONG TERM BOTH THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE THE WEST COAST TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AND PROGRESSING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RECENT
12 UTC RUNS FORECAST THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE 12 UTC ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF DID BACK OFF
A BIT FROM ITS 00 UTC RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-034>036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...NH


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