Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190518
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ALTHOUGH THE 01 UTC RAP/HRRR ARE OVERDOING THE QPF IN MOST
AREAS...THEY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE UTILIZED THIS BLEND FOR POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION BAND FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL...WITH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
BISMARCK THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND 12-14Z...LOWERED POPS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MORNING...THEN BUMPED THEM UP MID TO LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT |748 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR...ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER
THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
BAND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FROM AROUND MINOT TO GARRISON
TO HEBRON SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR KBIS THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MOVING TOWARD BISMARCK
ARE NOW DISSIPATING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE. 19 APRIL 00 UTC
SOUNDING STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING AROUND 10K FEET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS PUSHING SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH MORE INSOLATION
TO WORK WITH IS PRODUCING A LINE OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
THUNDER IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...DO NOT EXPECT THUNDER TO CONTINUE MUCH LONGER. WILL KEEP
A MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTH AND TRACKING EAST CONVERGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND THEN MOVE INTO BETTER MOISTURE AND
SURFACE SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS/SKY COVER BASED MAINLY ON SHORT TERM
CONSENSUS MODEL AND LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

AS OF 1930 UTC...A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL APPROACH
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY 01-02 UTC. AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PHASES WITH THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A WINDY SUNDAY
IS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE NOW DEEPENING LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA.
AT THIS TIME...WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH 30 TO 35 KTS TO MIX IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WILL WEIGH HEAVILY ON THE 16-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS
BLENDED TO THE GLOBAL 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

WINDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...COOL AND DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ENTERS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE...PROVIDING
NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS (ECMWF/GFS). WITH THE LOW
REMAINING NEARBY AND REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FAVORABLE
JET STREAK...LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE AREN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND PROPAGATING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. THIS COULD CREATE RATHER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MONDAY AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS
OFF TO THE EAST KEEPING NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS WEEK...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS AND 20S/30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
KBIS/KJMS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AC
FIRE WEATHER...AYD





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