Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 011726
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BRINGING CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT AS
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SO
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AREAS OF FOG CONTINUES FROM OAKES THROUGH VALLEY CITY AND THE
WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. JUST UPDATE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT.
FARTHER UPSTREAM IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH THE NEXT SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SEEN PUSHING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/MINOR PRESSURE FALLS PER LATEST MSAS/SURFACE
ASSIMILATION SYSTEM...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RISING MOTION
AHEAD OF THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL JUST GRAZE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN DRY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIFERY OF A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL KEEP THE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER GOING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS BEGINS TO
CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW MOVES ON
SHORE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH AN EXTENSION THAT BRINGS A NICE
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CROSSING OUR FINGERS THAT THIS PATTERN THE MODELS PORTRAY HOLDS WILL
RESULT IN A WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY POPS
WILL BE SCATTERED WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MAY BE IN THE
FUTURE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S. AFTER SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SUBSIDE EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN
COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. WITH GREEN-UP IMPROVING...BUT STILL SLOWER THAN NORMAL...
GRASSLANDS/FUELS REMAIN DRY. THE END RESULT IS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FIRE THAT SHOULD IGNITE WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...KS


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